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 .:: Forecasts on sports in bets offices::.

The largest niche, largest influence and weight in the market every possible soar on former have букмекерские of office that they have some large advantages above stock exchanges soar, and main of them breadth of a choice for the player or huge "assortment" is, availability and strangely enough further follows, the opportunity is simple "to play", without an idea, that you on a stock exchange, that is to group large final factor to make the complex(difficult) system rate and so on is вс ё very much it is pleasant to the players.
Those players, which simply play the pleasure to support a liked command(team) to add of sensations at viewing events on TV or to test кураж and passion, are the participants of original game subculture, which grows and becomes more and more and more popular. But even despite of rough growth букмекерства on постсоветском space, game culture and the scales are still very far from the countries - leaders, for example England, where the fan considers(counts) as more habitual to make the rate at viewing a match, than to not make her(it), the rates on the phone are advanced, when in breaks of sports events the advertising roller turns and you can make the rate not leaving from houses. However, knowing our mentality " what Russian does not like fast driving " and the love of the people to different games can safely be asserted(approved), that still ahead (is present in view of their service, and opportunity to do(make) the rates on the phone and at us is...).
Certainly, any player puts by a task all the same to win money and I do not know such players, who will assert(approve), that it is pleasant to them to lose and they do not want besides secondary benefits also simply to earn on the rates.
But the majority of the players regularly is lost by(with) money.
98 % and more players, at the end, leave in a minus or that they have not enough abilities and knowledge to win constantly, or that they consider(examine) букмекерскую office in a context of a casino and lottery and do(make) the rates "наудачу", and consciously opportunities for mathematical overweight above a line of office do not search, and use so-called short-term and высокорискованные aggressive strategy of different types. All these strategy need to be known, and really it happens, that in some of them there is a healthy grain, however they are united by(with) that they do not bear(carry) mathematical overweight at long game.
Term " the long game " has different explanations, but the majority of the professionals consider(count) as long game of 500 and more separate rates. If after such quantity(amount) of the separate rates the player leaves in plus, it is possible to say, that his(its) method and the strategy has the bases to be considered successful. Though I personally consider(count), what even 500 events are unsufficient precisely to say, whether the player with other things being equal (same systems, way of thinking and so on) again will receive positive overweight the ambassador following(next) 500 rates, therefore it is desirable to have 1000-1500 both more rates and only then it is possible to assert(approve), that the player has won after long game.
As проигрывающих of the players always majority, we have the complete right to consider(examine) букмекерскую office in a context of game in a casino or lottery, that is game with negative mathematical advantage of the player. How this negative advantage is formed?
Here we come to general(common) concept of a commission or маржи of a gambling institution, you see it at the expense of that exists букмекер. In West a similar commission name вигом or вигоришем. If in case of a casino and lottery, we can in all offered games to count a commission and the meaning(importance) of this commission always will be identical, concerning a commission букмекерской the office till now no the complete consent between the players.
If you play a roulette with one зеро, where we have 36 numbers and 1 зеро, and the payments are made in such a manner that at infinite game you on each put dollar will lose 1 / (36+1) =2.7 % or 2.7 cents, in a case with букмекерской by office it not absolutely so. If 10 players will put on black till 100 dollars and will drop out black, and then they will leave, they will leave by the winners. The key question sounds so: whether it is possible to make game with negative advantage by job? The answer: no. But whether it is possible to use game without mathematical overweight and to play системно, in short term, with mind(wit), to not do(make) it by job and to be in plus? Certainly yes, but the discipline and plan of actions is necessary. We necessarily shall consider various aggressive short-term systems of game further. Besides all these questions are constantly considered(examined) in our free-of-charge dispatch.
On the one hand, the nominal commission of office changes from 4-5 % till 10-15 of %, that means, that at the rates наобум at long game you will lose from 3-4 till 10-15 of cents from each put dollar, as occurs if to come nearer to process from a position of model " thousand players put on thousand events of one thousand days ". But at all thus never it is impossible to say absolutely precisely, what the probability of outcome in the given concrete event and in it consists difference букмекерской of office from a casino.
If we shall take 2 professional players, which have confirmed the class after thousand rates, for example, in tennis, and both of them are in good plus and we shall analyse their concrete rates постфактум- that rather probably, that the part of the rates of these players will be opposite, that is on the one hand winning players always have own opinion, and with another - the office in this case really is only intermediary between them. And now say, if we see, what two successful players give the different forecasts for concrete event, how we can define(determine) true probabilities of outcomes? And what for to office to aspire to, that it is possible for its(her) line how reflected its(her) vision of probabilities of outcomes and relative forces of commands(teams) more strongly? If two concrete professional players, which specialize on tennis, consider(count) differently, also office (read the concrete analyst this bookmakers) too forms the opinion and expresses it(him) in the line. The opinions can be different and only long game is a parameter goot.
The office does not need by and large to bill very strongly to penetrate into all factors influencing the given events, as the majority of its(her) clients too does not penetrate... It is enough to her to establish more - less authentic on the first sight factors, and then skilfully to divide(share) weights concerning the lines to receive profit without dependence from outcome of meetings.
Set to itself a question, whether the given professional players against office in the above-stated case play? In my opinion, is obvious that they play among themselves and conclude soar among themselves due to the intermediary - bookmakers to office.
In most cases, players to be more successful, it is necessary to know more offices, but not always вс ё so it is simple. Each office has cash events and outcomes, and is additional. If in case of cash events, on which put very many players to office simply enough skilfully to spend feature between the players, in a case with not cash events and unpopular kinds of the rates it is really possible to say, that the professional player beats office. In such events and outcomes it is really necessary for office aspires to establish a line as much as possible reflecting real chances of commands(teams) or to undertake such measures, as increased marge or reduced limits.
The metaphor of similar process - is bad отцентрованная a roulette. If the player of a casino precisely has defined(determined), that,say, any sector in рулеточном a wheel drops out more often that it is badly established, he beats an institution and has mathematical overweight, getting directly in a pocket of this institution.
And the lines of office in this case are more similar on badly established рулеточное a wheel, therefore player puts direct financial damage to office that the analysts of offices badly work and not correctly enough have established factors on the given events. Here office can not divide(share) the players, as the majority of the players does not like the given outcomes and championships!
The example of such lines is served by(with) lists as a type of the rates, championship of Brasil as a kind of sports and other unpopular outcomes. Often such lines are called "soft" and they can strongly change under influence of the rates of the players.
That is why it is complex(difficult) to say unequivocally, is вигориш or commission of office разделителем as on a usual stock exchange, where the exchange player pays a commission дилинговому to the centre, if he wishes to sell or to buy any active, or it is the built - in commission as in a roulette. As I earlier marked, the true is somewhere in the middle.
C 1982 in USA the company LVSC (Las Begas Sport Consultants) works which was based Michael "Roxy" Roxborough ("Рокси"). Now it is organization establishes lines to tens букмекерских of offices worldwide, its(her) forecasts are printed in many newspapers, she fine knows where there is money of public, has the good equipment, program and system for forecasting and always in a rate of all sports events. A position and opinion Рокси are those: " I not in business of definition of true chances of commands(teams), I in business of reception of division of opinion of the players about chances of commands(teams) ". The process of formation of lines occurs as follows. So-called "linesmakers" (those who does(make) a line or котировщики) are divided(shared) on some commands(teams), which are concentrated on the American football, baseball, college - basketball, college - football, НБА, НХЛ. Other group - group of the analysts more specialize on revealing of real force of commands(teams), whereas котировщики specialize on tastes of game public more. They are going to together and achieve консенсуса, and together develop the decision concerning a final line. One of the coordinators of job speaks: " we simply search for that number, which is pleasant to two parties " (it means, that they search for such фору, which will arrange both parties of the players. The rates with форой are very popular in USA that the majority of kinds of sports using popularity in USA are высокорезультативными, in difference,say, from usual football, where the most probable bills 1-0 and 1-1).
And as to a key role of formation of lines, the American football by virtue of the special popularity in USA, concerning small number of games, is much more strongly subject to influence of tastes of public, than basketball or baseball. LSVC explains it by that the clients, which put on the American football less "are reasonable", and that the quantity(amount) of "clever" money in other kinds of sports forces to give lines more focused not on tastes of the clients, and on прогнозируемые of force of commands(teams).
Thus, if in the majority of games of a casino вигориш, incorporated by an institution makes from 1-2 % till 10-15 of % and the player can have mathematical overweight only at game in БлекДжек or at game in a pocker against other players, at game in букмекерской to office the usual not professional player too pays about same маржу, as well as player in a casino. In cases with lotteries (we shall not concern that the results simply can garble, that it is not possible at game in office) player pays виг equal from 50 % in the majority of the European countries and up to 80 % in USA!
Therefore букмекерская the office is original exchange "аттракцион", working only on "offer", and the player can use this аттракцион in the interests and purposes: the honour lottery, casino, he can become the accomplice of different events from political choices up to a Championship of 3-rd league, he can become the professional and learn to play, leaving in a result in long-term plus.
In general(common), thanking bookmakers to offices everyone can receive that wants and the given type of a gambling institution is rather universal.
If you consider(examine) game in bookmakers offices as business, then you have an opportunity to buy every possible chances and can count on long-term plus, if you win " information war ".

Becoming the professional, you can besides pleasure write down to yourselves in an active ещ ё and   that you can work when want, where want   and how much want (using the Internet).
As to the ethical party of business, it is complex(difficult) someone in something to convince and the basic problems arise because of uncontrollability of feelings, absence of self-discipline, ignorance or unwillingness to study. In any business elimination about same, as well as at game in букмекерской to office and the statistics speaks, that 95 % all бизнесов are closed within one year and 98 % within five years and thus nobody tears on itself a hair and it is considered, that

To have the business is plus.
How here to not recollect a classical history with the American player Miller, when one man reproached it(him) that the rates on sports are unethical and Not well, and at all thus he worked at a weapon factory "Kolt"!

 

Plugs


Plug, they - SHUREBETs, they - non-risk rates, they - arbitration situations they - unique(sole), guaranteed way to not lose your money in game with bookmakers by offices.
To put down a plug - means to make the rates in different bookmakers offices on all possible(probable) opposite outcomes of one event so that at any result of event Advantageous the rate with profit paid back all others.
Receiving our dispatches   you can meet subtleties of game on plugs with bookmakers by offices. Besides our service makes the analysis of the offers бbookmakers on the current sports events   and search of arbitration situations.
Theoretically strategy of game on SHUREBETs on 100 % is relieved of risk. However, in practice it not absolutely so. In the first dispatches the basic moments of occurrence of plugs and risk will be described.

Kinds of plugs.


1. Plug on outcomes.
The plugs are good by that at any outcome you appear in a prize. Such plugs are caught as on 3 on factors, П1, Х, П2 and factors with incomplete форами and тоталами, i.e. when variants of account выйгрыша only two.
Профит of a plug pays off as
Profit=1-1/П1-1/П2-1/Х > 0 (%)
Placing the rates proceeding from a proportion
ST1/П1=STХ/Х=ST2/П2, in any of offices the sum, on Profit of % of the large initial investments ST1+ST2+X is guaranteed осядет.
Profit it is possible to increase up to 2 times, but with risk to not receive profit, if the rate on favorites in event to do(make) it is a little bit more, than the proportion orders. This method is effective enough on вилочных pairs of factors, where one of them at a level 1,3-1,5.

 

2. Plug on whole форах and тоталах.
Putting down similar plugs, it is necessary to realize, that at concurrence of result with F букмекер returns the rates. Money in a result is not lost , however and profit too no.

3. Urgency of a plug.

The practice shows, that the most juicy plugs live not for long. In on-line it, as a rule, 1,5-2 hours. For anybody not a secret, that simply copy the majority букмекеров at the neighbours (or забугорных) basis of lines, supposing only weak variations, proceeding from the tactical reasons. However, the majority those has removed branches, where not always light, communication(connection), brain …

 

Plugs on three outcomes.
1. Plug on three pure(clean) outcomes.

As already was is noticed in the previous sections arbitration situations can to arise not only on two opposite outcomes. As in the majority of events, on which expose the offers, of possible(probable) outcomes there can be three (for example П1, Х, П2) the extensive enough layer of plugs is possible отловить on трехисходках. Today with transition to more productive computing capacities at us the opportunity has appeared to trace lines of offices also in it ракурсе. So, that we have added to consideration.
First, analysis on an arbitration situation on pure(clean) outcomes. The speech goes about the offers букмекеров on П1, Х, П2 трехисходки. As is known, the plug is registered, if is satisfied condition:
PR=1-1/П1-1/Х-1/П2 > 0, where
П1, Х, П2 - accordingly factors букмекеров on a victory of the first command(team), drawn game and victory of the second command(team) in the chosen event, and PR - профит of realization of this arbitration situation. Having placed the rates on these three outcomes in the sum back proportional to factor on the appropriate outcome, after account of the rates in one of offices there will be a prize on PR the greater sums of the initial rates without dependence from outcome of event.
Summarizing, it is possible to notice, that a plug - situation, at which two conditions are carried out at once.
1. The outcomes participating in a plug, make complete set of outcomes of event.
2. The factors offered to payment букмекерами, are in the certain mathematical parity(ratio)

In a case with П1, Х, П2 it is possible to illustrate an arbitration situation as follows.

П1

Х

П2

All set of outcomes

2. Plug on three outcomes with participation basic whole fora.

It is known, that the majority of sports events is estimated букмекерами also with the help гандикапа, or simply for. Certainly, that for each event different bookmakers can do(make) it differently.
Event. Hockey. НХЛ. New Jersey - Philadelphia.
bookmaker1 Ф2 (0) 2,15
bookmaker2 Ф1 (-0,5) 2,44
bookmaker3 Ф1 (+0,5) 1,86
If to look narrowly, it is possible to see, that the listed outcomes completely block set of probable outcomes of event.

 

2:0

1:0

0:0

0:1

0:2

 
   
    bookmaker1
   
    bookmaker2
   
    bookmaker3

All set of outcomes

 


There is a question. And at what meanings(importance) of factors there is an arbitration situation? The answer gives the decision of system of inequalities for the seventh class of high school. We find for each of possible(probable) outcomes of event meaning(importance) of a prize and we speak, that the prize necessarily should be more loss.

Outcome

Prize

Loss

0:1 (0:2 Or it is more)

B1*k1

B1+B2+B3

0:0

B3*k3+B1

B1+B2+B3

1:0 (2:0 Or it is more)

B2*k2+B3*k3

B1+B2+B3

 

Whether it is necessary to explain, that under advantageous outcomes here there is not an exact bill of a match, and difference of washers.
From all it follows, that profit PR (in absolute expression) млжет to be received under condition of:
B1*k1 + PR = B3*k3+B1 + PR=B2*k2+B3*k3+PR
It is clear, that if we wish to receive profit without dependence from outcome of event, the factors offered bookmakers by offices should satisfy to the following condition:
PR =k1 / (1+1/k2 + (k1-1) /k3) -1 > 0
It is not difficult to calculate the rates, which are necessary for making to realize this arbitration situation.
B2=B1/k2 And B3=B1 * (k1-1) /k3.
Developing further it would be desirable to notice the offered theme,, that the described approach is equally correct for any whole фор on outcome bookmakers1, including for negative. It is important only, that other offers blocked completely set of outcomes.

 

Ф1

Ф2

Ф2

-2

+1,5

+2,5

-1

+0,5

+1,5

0

-0,5

+0,5

1

-1,5

-0,5

2

-2,5

-1,5

Ф2

Ф1

Ф1

Thus, we shall analyze now lines букмекерских of offices on occurrence of such arbitration situations.
In addition it would be desirable to notice, that as well as in a case with two-initial plugs the situation assumes occurrence коридорных of plugs. It is obvious, that when the same event букмекеры have estimated different форами, but identical factors, the rate is more favourable for placing on on outcome with greater (in absolute meaning(importance), instead of on the module) форой. Differently, provided that the factors satisfy to the second criterion of a plug given earlier and форы for them more, than the first criterion requires(demands), we receive typical  a plug. If those to put down, at successful confluence of circumstances it can bring profit much more planned.

3. Plug on three outcomes with participation basic whole T.

Following the described above logic will not difficultly be convinced, that the plugs can be found on offered bookmakers T.
bookmaker1 ТМ (3)
bookmaker2 ТБ (3,5)
bookmaker3 ТБ (2,5)

1

2

3

4

5

 
   
    bookmaker1
          bookmaker2
          bookmaker3

All set of outcomes

 

It, certainly, is equally correct and for a return situation

bookmaker1 ТБ(3)
bookmaker2 ТМ(2,5)
bookmaker3 ТМ(3,5)

1

2

3

4

5

 
   
    bookmaker1
   
    bookmaker2
   
    bookmaker3

All set of outcomes

 

The difference is present only in a technique of definition of possible(probable) "addition" тотула at account коридорных of plugs. If the speech goes about ТБ, at equal factors the rate to make with smaller тоталом more effectively. If the speech goes about ТМ, that, on the contrary, at equal factors the rate more effectively to make with large.

And now small chesspiece about the rates.


Whether you paid attention, how do(make) the rates the majority of the players? As a rule, the player studies statistics of games and chooses,say, 8 probable events. Also that he does(makes) further... About, horror! Puts all these 8 events in 1-2 express trains. And then, to a great regret, it turns out, that from all chosen variants do not refer only 1-2 events: But rate проиграна: Nevertheless, many players continue to play the same spirit... Certainly, factor in this case turns out good and sometimes even it is possible to win, but in result is lost much more... We, as always, we adhere to a principle " Better to win a little, but often ", therefore we search for ways and ways of reduction of risk up to a minimum.

Let's try to develop system, which would allow:
1. To not lose money (to return the most part of the sum or all sum) at discrepancy 2-3 events from 8.
2. To receive profit at discrepancy 1-2 events from 8.

One of systems allowing to reach(achieve) of this result is below submitted.
Let's illustrate on an example:

? Game Event К Result
1 Боруссия Д. - Шальке М2,5 1,90 1-1
2 Бастия - Сошо 2(+1) 1,35 3-0
3 Вильярреал - Валенсия М2,5 1,70 1-1
4 Ланс - Лорьен 1 1,30 1-1
5 Генгам - Ренн 1(0) 1,50 1-1
6 Атлетик - Реал М. 1(+1) 1,22 2-1
7 Штутгарт - Вольсбург 1(0) 1,45 2-1
8 Марсель - Метц 1(0) 1,23 1-0


System Factor The rate Prize
1-2-4 0,00 10,00 0,00
1-3-6 3,94 10,00 39,40
1-6-8 2,85 10,00 28,50
2-3-5 0,00 10,00 0,00
2-5-8 0,00 10,00 0,00
3-7-8 3,03 10,00 30,30
4-5-7 0,00 10,00 0,00
4-6-7 0,00 10,00 0,00
Results: 1,23 80 98,20

As we see, even at use of events with small factors, at concurrence 5 of 8 (is not guessed: 2; the charge: 1) it was possible to receive profit, and rather quite good for such Rule(situation).
Now let's assume, that we have not guessed three events from eight + one charge. Let it will be event? 8 (Stuttgart - вольфсбург). In this case play 2 express trains of system and we receive return 85 % from the enclosed sum. Agree, it is better, than to put all chosen 8 events in 1-2 экспр. And to lose at once all money at discrepancy 2-3 events.
By the way, there is a probability of a prize even at discrepancy 4-5 events! In this case plays one express train, which запросто can return half of sum (and can and more, since all depends of factors on events, which you have chosen) even at such failure.
We summarize:
Even in spite of the fact that in our example the events with small factors were used and two events + one charge are not guessed, in result +23 % is received arrived. And you see rather often makes only one event from all set - in this case at average factors +100 % of the pure(clean) profit, as a rule, turns out approximately!

There is also weight of other similar systems designed for various number of initial events and having various opportunities (in sense of probabilities and the sizes of prizes). About these systems   the conversation in free-of-charge dispatch will conduct

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